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bigsky2
12-29-2011, 08:48 AM
I have 4 preference points going into the 2012 draw. Looking at the drawing odds in the Eastmans MRS section it will say something like 10% odds with 5 preference points, but then to the right there is a column that says estimated points to draw and it will say something like 25. I don't understand this, it seems with 10% draw odds you should have a decent chance to draw within ten years just based on the odds. Does 25 mean it is estimated that it takes 25 years to draw on average?

buckbull
12-29-2011, 12:25 PM
Good question bigsky2. Not certain, but I always thought it was like a weighted number, meaning that if there were 100 tags and there were only 100 folks with max points (say 6) then the number would be 6. However if there were 500 folks with 6 points trying to get those 100 tags, the weighted number might be 30 points, because even with max points you are not guaranteed a tag only 1 in 5 would get it. Based on the point creep going on those marginal units are looking better and better. I'd rather hunt every other year than to wait every 5, 8, 10 years.