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Zim
04-16-2012, 06:08 PM
Well today was the last day to apply in Nevada. I have been stacking points for years and would now like to cash some in, so I picked a lot of units where I hope to have a realistic chance, at least for Lope & deer. I have 13 points for most critters.

I am hoping the draw odd on MM are reasonably close. My 5th choices have 20% and 30% odds so that is what I am thinking I have?

Zim
04-16-2012, 06:17 PM
Anybody do those raffles they have in Nevada? I was thinking of it given my situation this year, but I can't find myself participating due to the fact I am not in favor of distributing public land tags that way. I mean it's better than auction tags, but still I don't like the concept and think they should be in the public draw for those that wait their turn.

Do the sales for those stop today also? Or do they run that a while?

Drhorsepower
04-16-2012, 06:40 PM
I donate enough money to ndow, I'll let the big players compete for the raffle tags.

BossBrott
04-16-2012, 08:19 PM
The raffle hunts make tons of money, and I wont participate, just because im a leery Californian and think all those type of systems have a corruption level. TRUST, one thing the CA sportsman is missing in his state DFG. Bummer

BigSurArcher
04-18-2012, 08:48 PM
The MM draw odds for NV are way off. They only use data from everyone's first choice. Look at the NDOW Bonus Point Data spreadsheets and you will find that the actual odds are much different.

Ikeepitcold
04-18-2012, 10:13 PM
Spreadsheets are the only way to go. You know your getting the data rite from the sorce.

HuskyMusky
04-19-2012, 01:05 PM
May try to draw a lope in NV in the next few years...

this year just points except for sheep, goat

hardstalk
04-19-2012, 01:36 PM
That is a cool resource! I've never seen that. It makes me a bit more confident in my draw odds. I usually check a draw odd statistic off a website the real odds are much different.

Ikeepitcold
04-19-2012, 08:39 PM
Also don't forget to call the biologist for the area your looking into as well. They are a great help.

Musket Man
04-19-2012, 10:49 PM
I found out the dead line on the 16th is 5pm....... at 7:30:( But you can get points only for another week so I just added points to my small collection of them this year.

Drhorsepower
04-19-2012, 11:25 PM
I found out the dead line on the 16th is 5pm....... at 7:30:( But you can get points only for another week so I just added points to my small collection of them this year.

There ya go. At least you upped your chances for next year

Musket Man
04-19-2012, 11:46 PM
Thought I had till midnight online. Took me 20 min to figure out why all that would come up is bonus point only. Thought I was doing something wrong. lol live and learn

Drhorsepower
04-19-2012, 11:54 PM
Thought I had till midnight online. Took me 20 min to figure out why all that would come up is bonus point only. Thought I was doing something wrong. lol live and learn

You did it the hard way but you wont do thy again! Its the guys that forget every year I scratch my head at. I know a guy that forgets te deadline every year! Its amazing he remembers to put in for points. He's the one you have to worry about, it not like the app deadline changes drastically every year !

Musket Man
04-20-2012, 12:35 AM
It wont happen again! lol I was out of town and really busy. Was still reading about units when I left. I usually apply in all states atleast day before deadline and now I remember why!

Drhorsepower
04-20-2012, 12:39 AM
Hehe. It's funny until it happens to you right?

Musket Man
04-20-2012, 01:07 AM
Im laughing, what else can I do. lol Least I got points so its not all that bad!

Zim
04-20-2012, 08:17 AM
The MM draw odds for NV are way off. They only use data from everyone's first choice. Look at the NDOW Bonus Point Data spreadsheets and you will find that the actual odds are much different.

Ya, but I figure if all 5 of my choices were 2nd tier hunts with an average of 4%/13 pt. units, my overall odds should be about 4% for getting one of the 5. Does this make sense? Maybe not, if they are heavily chosen for other's 4th & 5th piicks?

BigSurArcher
04-20-2012, 10:10 AM
Ya that's pretty rational thinking. Although I put in for really low %age archery antelope hunts (all <8% according to MM) this year and then after I submitted it I found those BP spreadsheets and as it turns out... I have a way better chance at drawing a couple of them than I thought. Same with one of the archery mule deer tags I applied for as my 4th choice. MM says about a 7% chance with 0 points (I drew a tag last year), but when I cross referenced it with the BP sheet... almost 28% of people with 0 points actually drew it! Fine with me... as I don't draw antelope AND mule deer. I need to have time to make at least some money over summer vacation! Just thought I'd let you know what I've found out about MM odds since I know you are worried about conflicting hunts this year. Good luck!

Musket Man
04-20-2012, 08:25 PM
I dont think odds and % matter asmuch in NV because it all comes down to the random draw numbers the computer gives you. I really cant see an accurate way to predict when you will or will not draw anything.