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Zim
06-10-2011, 03:10 PM
Anybody here got a realistic shot at a Strip or Kaibab late hunt this year?

My buddy and I have 1 point under max and after analyzing the rediculous complex draw system there I figure we have about a 20% chance to draw Kaibab. Put 13A for first choice but we know that ain't gonna happen.

If he goes down to take the test we'll be in top draw pool for a strip unit next year.

Umpqua Hunter
06-13-2011, 01:32 AM
Zim...I'm in the running for a strip tag with max points. With all the moisture it would sure be a great year to draw!

Have you looked into hunterstrailhead.com? They have done a pretty good job accounting for the various drawing processes in each state, rather than just offering "simple" odds. It might be helpful to you.

Zim
06-13-2011, 02:46 PM
Zim...I'm in the running for a strip tag with max points. With all the moisture it would sure be a great year to draw!

Have you looked into hunterstrailhead.com? They have done a pretty good job accounting for the various drawing processes in each state, rather than just offering "simple" odds. It might be helpful to you.

No, but I will right now. Did you go down there to take their test? I found it completely rediculous how some residents were actually defending their class as being so superior to other state's classes that it warranted the necessity to go down there to take it. The class was virtually identical to the other 3 I have taken in Indiana & Illinois. Nothing special at all.

That being said, I am glad they have it now since I got my point, plus it provided an incredible winter getaway vacation trip for me. I want to return there every winter now. Maybe that is why they require it...............tourism. If so, it worked!

Zim
06-13-2011, 04:04 PM
OK I checked it out and for my hunt the chart looked identical to the regular one on MM. Says we have a 38% chance which is close to my estimate of 20%.

shanehamblin
06-16-2011, 12:26 AM
moisture? haha no moisture down here haha we are still in the middle of this dang wildfire. me and my family just got home from being evacuated so i really really wish arizona would get some rain its just not happening this year yet. but you can never go wrong with a strip tag. good luck on the draw i already killed a deer in january so i cant hunt deer in az till january again but i did pull a new mexico deer tag. but it wouldnt hurt to have a few extra prayers for rain from some out of staters even if its for horn growth

Umpqua Hunter
06-16-2011, 01:55 AM
shanehamblin: Am I missing something? My friends in Arizona told me there has been excellent spring moisture on the Strip. I am also watching the precipitation in St. George Utah, just north of the Strip. In 2010, one of the best years ever in recent history on the Strip, there was 13 mm of precipitation between April 1 and June 15. This year for the same period there is 70 mm, over 5 times the spring precipitation of 2010.

Umpqua Hunter
06-16-2011, 02:23 AM
OK I checked it out and for my hunt the chart looked identical to the regular one on MM. Says we have a 38% chance which is close to my estimate of 20%.

Hey Zim.....I did take the AZ Hunter's Safety, and like you it was probably my 5th time to take hunter's safety. I've taken it in CA and OR and then two more times in OR with my kids. I took the AZ test on line, then flew down for a field day. Mostly 10-15 year olds and one other out-of-stater there to get his permanent point. I did have to take a test again at the field day which I didn't realize, but all went well.

Looking at the info you gave, I believe I know what late Kaibab hunt you applied for. Since the draw odds were 38% year for that tag last year, that means about 4 of 10 applicants drew out. In simple odds there are about 50 applicants left with one less than max points competing for 35 bonus tags in that unit. The negative is only 17 of those tags will go to non-residents. The projected odds on hunterstrailhead for this year are 71% draw, so it looks like you've got a darn good chance at a tag. Let us know if you score. I hope it goes well for you.

Zim
06-16-2011, 09:01 AM
Umpqua, Did you get the 71% from the members only section? Because I don't see it anywhere.

If so, looks like we do have a decent chance. I already have 2 tags out west for NM & WY from mid-Sept. to early Oct. and drew a great IL whitetail tag for Nov. 18-20. That tag would burn if I drew AZ as both hunts open 11/18. From what I've read though AZ does not do application changes. One good thing is if I draw I'd just fly out for that AZ hunt. I'll be driving for the NM/WY one.

Did you take into account the tag reduction this year?

Umpqua Hunter
06-17-2011, 05:22 PM
Zim: Yeppers, I did get that off of the member's section. When you start getting up near the 40% draw odds, statistically things change fast:

Year 1: 4 of 10 people draw = 40% draw odds (6 left)
Year 2: 4 of the remaining 6 people draw = 66% draw daw odds (2 left)
Year 3: The last two draw = 100% draw odds

shanehamblin
06-18-2011, 04:15 PM
ya my bad. Im from eastern az and we are in a serious drought I wish they would send some of that rain our way and put this fire out down here. good luck on the draw...

Zim
06-19-2011, 12:13 PM
Zim: Yeppers, I did get that off of the member's section. When you start getting up near the 40% draw odds, statistically things change fast:

Year 1: 4 of 10 people draw = 40% draw odds (6 left)
Year 2: 4 of the remaining 6 people draw = 66% draw daw odds (2 left)
Year 3: The last two draw = 100% draw odds


I suspect there will be more top point holders putting in for the Kaibab tags 2nd choice as the years go by, as they see their odds for 13 drop each year due to more NR's getting the hunter ed point than do draw 13 tags. I wish I had it to do over again as my odds of drawing that IL permit are low, and those results come out prior to the AZ app deadline. I could have saved that AZ tag for when I draw no IL permit. Oh well, at least there will be fewer hunters in the Kaibab this fall, and apparently they are having a very wet spring.

Umpqua Hunter
09-07-2011, 05:23 PM
I suspect there will be more top point holders putting in for the Kaibab tags 2nd choice as the years go by, as they see their odds for 13 drop each year due to more NR's getting the hunter ed point than do draw 13 tags. I wish I had it to do over again as my odds of drawing that IL permit are low, and those results come out prior to the AZ app deadline. I could have saved that AZ tag for when I draw no IL permit. Oh well, at least there will be fewer hunters in the Kaibab this fall, and apparently they are having a very wet spring.

You do have a good point there, but even that has an end to it. Only those with one below max can get to max with the hunter's safety option. For me personally, I'm at max, and I am willing to stay here for another 15 years if it takes it for a 13 tag. My estimation is it will be less then 5-7 years.

TimG
10-06-2011, 02:49 PM
Did you draw? I drew unit 12 A East for mulies 11/18-11/27!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TimG

nvarcher
10-26-2011, 05:08 PM
Anybody know what the draw odds are like for an Archery tag in these units?

ChadH
04-10-2012, 02:54 PM
Anybody here got a realistic shot at a Strip or Kaibab late hunt this year?

My buddy and I have 1 point under max and after analyzing the rediculous complex draw system there I figure we have about a 20% chance to draw Kaibab. Put 13A for first choice but we know that ain't gonna happen.

If he goes down to take the test we'll be in top draw pool for a strip unit next year.


I wish i had a chance, unfortunately I think I will be about 60-65 years old (I am 48 now) before I have a shot. I am saving up for 12A or 12B. I have an old photo of my grandfather hunting Kaibab in the late 40's after he got back from WW2 and have always wanted to hunt there. Drove through in September a few years ago, and hung out a day and scouted deer. Even early I saw quite a few bucks, no big ones though.

Looking at the map for 12B it doesn't show a distinction for East and West, but you apply for East or West correct?

What are the early hunts like in that unit? Like I said, I saw deer in there early, but assume the big boys aren't in the country at this time (or tough to find). For someone like me that just wants to hunt the area, is an early hunt worth burning the points or should I wait another 10 years?