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  1. #31
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    3 guys go to a motel and get the last room for $10.00 each. $30.00 dollars total. They go to the room . The manager decides he charged them too much so he gives the bell boy 5 $1.00 bills to give back to the three guys. On the way the bell boy decides he cant divide 5 dollars evenly, so he keeps two and gives each guy $1.00. Each guy has then only paid $9.00 soooooo 3x9=27 and the bell boy kept 2 which makes 29! Where did the other dollar go? Bitteroot, When you figure out HuskyMusky's math, work on this one.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuskyMusky View Post
    another example, 1 unit has 2 tags, another has 4 tags, both have 100 people applying, so 2/100, and 4/100, you're twice as likely to draw the 4/100 tag, ie 4% vs. 2%, so 2% difference and twice the chance, so 2x or 200% greater chance at drawing the 4/100(4%) tag.
    Husky, you got this one right. You also got it right that 3% is twice the chance as 1.5% and 60% is twice the chance as 30%. Where you missed it is equating the two "twices".

    The fact remains the difference between 1% and 2% odds aren't much, and the difference between 30% and 60% is huge. the 1% or 2% units are long shots either way, while the other has a tremendous advantage going from a 1 in 3 chance to a more likely than not chance of drawing.

    My recommendation would be to put in for the unit you really want to hunt, regardless of the odds, because the odds suck everywhere (except the unlimited hunts).

    As for the 3 men with $10 riddle, that is an old one, but they only paid $25 for the room, $2 for the tip (they didn't know they paid), and got $3 back in refund. 25+2+3=30. No missing dollar.

  3. #33
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    Hope it's okay, I'm gonna throw in my 2 cents on the draw odds discussion.

    In the last 27 years of applying, I've been blessed to have drawn three sheep tags (1988 bighorn in Colorado, 2001 in desert in Nevada, 2009 bighorn in Wyoming). One of my sons also drew a Wyoming sheep tag in 2007 and another son drew an Arizona desert sheep tag in 2008. We took quality rams on all of the hunts.

    When it comes to drawing odds for sheep...I am a FIRM believer you have to work the odds while still applying for quality units.

    For my example I am going to talk about a guy who applies in 9 states for sheep tags (OR, ID, WY, AZ, NM, MT, CO, NV, UT). When applying in several states, even a TINY difference in draw odds gives you HUGE leverage. So here it goes....

    Scenario 1: You apply for the very best tag in every state, and have say a 0.25% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 2.25% chance to draw. On average it would take 44 years to draw. You could possibly never hunt sheep even though you spent a lifetime applying.

    Scenario 2: You apply in units that have a 0.50% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 4.5% chance to draw. On average it would take 22 years to draw, so you would likely hunt sheep once and possibly twice in your lifetime.

    Scenario 3: You apply in units that have a 1.0% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 9% chance to draw. On average it would take 11 years to draw, so this guy would likely hunt sheep 3 time and possibly 4 times in a lifetime.


    This year I'm applying in 7 states for quality sheep units and estimate my draw odds at just under 9%, or about 1 in 11 odds to draw a sheep tag. Not too shabby...I'll take those odds.

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  5. #34
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    Good to know!

    I get pretty wrapped up in tag soup on figuring out drawing odds versus quality. But your right it's better to have a tag then never have a tag because you spent your life applying for "quality tags".

    I'd rather marry a 8 than never sleep with a 10.

  6. #35
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    Another thing people get really wrapped around is species.

    If you have never killed a ram, there are 4 subspecies of bighorns in the lower 48, Mexicana, California, Baja and Rocky Mountain.

    I'd rather be drawn in a state like Nevada or Utah for a California bighorn ram then never draw a Mexicana or Baja ram in Arizona, Utah or Nevada.

    Apply for everything you can apply for, in areas that hold sheep.

  7. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    Hope it's okay, I'm gonna throw in my 2 cents on the draw odds discussion.

    In the last 27 years of applying, I've been blessed to have drawn three sheep tags (1988 bighorn in Colorado, 2001 in desert in Nevada, 2009 bighorn in Wyoming). One of my sons also drew a Wyoming sheep tag in 2007 and another son drew an Arizona desert sheep tag in 2008. We took quality rams on all of the hunts.

    When it comes to drawing odds for sheep...I am a FIRM believer you have to work the odds while still applying for quality units.

    For my example I am going to talk about a guy who applies in 9 states for sheep tags (OR, ID, WY, AZ, NM, MT, CO, NV, UT). When applying in several states, even a TINY difference in draw odds gives you HUGE leverage. So here it goes....

    Scenario 1: You apply for the very best tag in every state, and have say a 0.25% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 2.25% chance to draw. On average it would take 44 years to draw. You could possibly never hunt sheep even though you spent a lifetime applying.

    Scenario 2: You apply in units that have a 0.50% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 4.5% chance to draw. On average it would take 22 years to draw, so you would likely hunt sheep once and possibly twice in your lifetime.

    Scenario 3: You apply in units that have a 1.0% chance to draw on average. In 9 states that is a 9% chance to draw. On average it would take 11 years to draw, so this guy would likely hunt sheep 3 time and possibly 4 times in a lifetime.


    This year I'm applying in 7 states for quality sheep units and estimate my draw odds at just under 9%, or about 1 in 11 odds to draw a sheep tag. Not too shabby...I'll take those odds.
    Well, UH, that is an interesting way to look at it. However that is not how a random draw works. The only way you can increase your odds over time in a unit is to have bonus or preference points. In MT (the subject of this thread), bonus points help your odds the following year by putting your name in the pool more times. If it is a state like ID, your odds of a unit never change, year after year, unless less or more people put in that year. It is like a game of roullette. The statistical "Law of Independent Trials" comes into effect. Roulette players often make this mistake, believing that the previous failure increases the next trial's chance of success. This is not statistically true.

    What I am saying is your odds don't add onto each other each year. If you apply in a .25% unit for 44 years, your odds are still .25% to draw that year. Every year is an independent trial, and your odds are dictated by the number of applicants, and the number of times your name is in the applicant pool.

    Furthermore, your odds in one state's draw does nothing to your odds in another state, so you can't add them together. Each of those draws is an independent draw also. They are each subject to their individual draws. Of course, it is a great idea to put in for all the states you can, because you can't win, if you're not in.

    Of course, CO is different with their hybrid draw, and your odds increase substantially over time.
    Last edited by Bitterroot Bulls; 03-30-2012 at 06:33 AM.

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  9. #37
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    Good math Bitterroot!

  10. #38
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    So what your saying is that even if there were 100 states that offered sheep hunting, it wouldn't matter because it is 100 different sets of chances?

  11. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edelweiss View Post
    So what your saying is that even if there were 100 states that offered sheep hunting, it wouldn't matter because it is 100 different sets of chances?
    What I am saying is the odds in one state have zero effect on the odds in another state. putting in for a lot of states is good, because you are in each of those pools, and somebody has to draw in each of them.

  12. #40
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    As Leo Getts said in Lethal Weapon "I wich you, when I am say I am wich you I mean I'm wich you".

    I agree, but playing the odds and hunting is better than playing higher odds and never hunting.

    The great thing about Wyoming is that you know $1400-1800 and 14-18 years worth of points (at the current $100 per point for non-res) you will eventually hunt sheep.

    Points have made a lot of this much simpler, I wish more states didn't make you buy a hunting license like Utah, Nevada and Arizona do. Makes their points expensive, but I did it anyway as I am not getting any younger.

 

 

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