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  1. #51
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    Only respect this way as well, UH!

    I am not an engineer, and I haven't taken Statistics since 1999, so give me some leeway...

    However, my understanding of the Addition Rule in Probability P(A) or P(B) = P(A) + P (B) is that it refers to one draw with outcomes (events) independent of each other. As in:

    Bitterroot and UH have applied in a sheep unit with 1 tag where their individual probability of drawing is 2%. The probalility that either Bitterroot or UH draws is P(Bitterroot) + P(UH) which is (.02) + (.02) = (.04). So there is a 4% chance that either will draw.

    Maybe that also applies to separate draws, but that is not my understanding.

    If that was the way it worked, you could take a odd/even 50/50 bet and after losing twice, bet the house.

  2. #52
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    BKC my Grandpa taught me that math error a long time ago. I havent heard it in years.

  3. #53
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    I think you are both incorrect on calculating independent probabilities. The corect way would be to calculate the odds of not drawing each one and multiplying them.

    So if you apply for two units with both 2% odds it would look like: 1- [(1.00-.02) * (1.00-.02)] then you would get 0.0396 or just under 4%

    So for 50 years at 2% you get: 1- [(1.00-.02)^50] = .6358 or 63.5% chance over 50 years

    If you only had 1%: it would be about 39.5%

    I think this is the proper way to calculate this type of odds.

  4. #54
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    There goes 15 minutes I'll never get back... Why don't you guy's move this over to the math forum topic? Oh wait... there is none...

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoHiCntry View Post
    There goes 15 minutes I'll never get back... Why don't you guy's move this over to the math forum topic? Oh wait... there is none...
    This is the best reply on the whole thread!!

  6. #56
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    Alright, I finally got it!

    UH, it turns out we are both right after I did some research. My apologies. We were just using two different probability laws!

    I was using the Law of independent Trials. You were using the Law of Large Numbers!

    Eureka!

    That is, on any given year, your odds of drawing a 2% tag is 2%. The draw has no memory of past failures.

    However, over a large sample, you would expect to draw 2% of the time, so in 100 years, you would expect to draw twice. The problem with the law of large numbers is that it is more and more reliable with larger and larger numbers. So if you applied for a 1000 years, you would expect to draw 20 times. But the odds of drawing those 20 times in the last 20 years of the 1000 is the same as drawing it the first 20, or 1 of the 20 in the first 5, or 5 of the 20 in each of the last 4 decades, etc.

    It is like flipping a coin. Even if you get 15 heads in a row, it doesn't make the 16th flip a tails ... BUT over 1000 flips, about 500 are going to be each!

    This thread has been very good for me, because it does illustrate the advantages of even slightly higher odds.


    Thanks, UH.

  7. #57
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    BB, I think you are right on, both principles are at work. If after 40 years of applying a person still hasn't drawn, his odds are still lousy in the next draw he's up for. That's why you can't bet the house on any given play.

    My wife told me not to post originally, as working small draw odds is one of the secrets to draw low odds tags, but there are still at least 3 more ways to work the odd that are as good or better then that one. I turn 70 years old in 2034, so feel free to ask me then.

    Maybe Eastman's will have to set-up a "math" or "drawing odds" forum...that was a good one

    BB, you mentioned the new bonus points squared in Montana that was the first I had heard of that. Is that for residents only? I might just have to move to Montana when I have 30 points.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    BB, you mentioned the new bonus points squared in Montana that was the first I had heard of that. Is that for residents only? I might just have to move to Montana when I have 30 points.
    It is for everybody. Of course, residents have a lot more licenses available to them, though.

    http://fwp.mt.gov/hunting/licenses/bonuspoints.html

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoHiCntry View Post
    Why don't you guy's move this over to the math forum topic?
    Could not agree more.
    Arise... Kill, Eat! - Acts 10:13

  10. #60
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    In case anyone is curious, I'm still on the 680 train.
    Arise... Kill, Eat! - Acts 10:13

 

 

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