Best Sheep Unit Besides The Breaks?

[Bitterroot Bulls]

As Leo Getts said in Lethal Weapon "I wich you, when I am say I am wich you I mean I'm wich you".

I agree, but playing the odds and hunting is better than playing higher odds and never hunting.

The great thing about Wyoming is that you know $1400-1800 and 14-18 years worth of points (at the current $100 per point for non-res) you will eventually hunt sheep.

Points have made a lot of this much simpler, I wish more states didn't make you buy a hunting license like Utah, Nevada and Arizona do. Makes their points expensive, but I did it anyway as I am not getting any younger.

This is actually a really interesting thread.

I think buying points is money well spent. I think hiring a BC sheep outfitter is worth every penny, because that gets more expensive every year.

By all means, play the draw odds. Just realize you are only 1% more likely to draw the 2% tag than the 1% tag. So you may well never draw either in MT (although the new squared bonus point system "should" help).

Come to think of it, I agree with Husky. I don't think anybody should put in for 680 or 482. Really ... tell all your friends.

[Edelweiss]

I kind of dissagree with you.

We should all stop hunting sheep outside the lower 48 all together. I mean all the worlds hunters.

Drop the value of the stinking things.

Since that isn't going to happen, I am planning on going to Mongolia after we get set up after my military retirement next year and I have a 2nd career going.

You should have seen the ibex and argalis I used to see in Afghanistan on a regular basis. Man I wish we could have hunted while I was over there being a infidel. Miss those mountains 18,000 feet and climbing.

[BKC]

I drew sheep and goat in colorado when these were just pure points tags and I am still waiting to draw a moose tag with max. weighted points. Weighted points are a gimmick. I don't know how this compares to a squared point system. It would seem to me that if enough applicants are in it from the beginning and stay in every year then what is the advantage? Your still in with the same amount of applicants!

Bitterroot, Nice job finding the extra dollar!

[Elkoholic307]

So... the best sheep unit(s) besides the Breaks is/are?

[Bitterroot Bulls]

The Sun River Units are probably next in line while the Rock Creek units recover.

[HuskyMusky]

Buying sheep points in WY is the worse idea ever!

Unless you already have a significant # of points, and I probably would say that means you currently have over 10 points! Do you?

More and more hunters will only continue to buy points/apply, odds should only get worse.
75% of tags go to max points holders, so unless you have whatever max points is, 16/17 you won't draw that tag!
25% go in a random draw, I believe many of the best units don't offer 4+ non-res tags, which 3 or less tags means = no random draw, so if you have 15 pts you aren't drawing that tag! (it wouldn't even be possible! 0% odds)

In my view unless WY changes it's structure or sheep #'s explode, a guy just starting to apply for a sheep tag, could theoretically apply his entire life and pay $100/year and NEVER draw a sheep tag!

WY may change this down the road when it hits the fan, but I'm not willing to pay $100/year for a maybe

and some terrible sheep trophy quality, I think this past year was the 1st year for a booner bighorn? or was that a goat for the first time? either way I think 160 is a nice sheep in WY.

Honestly though it's better for me if everyone continues to buy points and apply for the best units, so maybe I should shut up.

[Bitterroot Bulls]

Sounds like WY has a system just set up for bad point creep. Not much use getting points there, unless you are planning for the system to change and want some points in the bank.

[Umpqua Hunter]

BB you are absolutely right about statistics and independent events, and that every draw stands on its own.

The point I am bringing up however is how to leverage even slight improvements in draw odds over the course of a lifetime of applying (50 years of applications). This works even in applying in a single state. Draw odds of 1% are indeed twice as good as draw odds of 2%, and draw odds of 1% are ten times better then draw odds of 0.1%. In a given year this might not equate to much, but over the course of a lifetime (say 50 applications/per state) 2% draw odds will give the applicant a 100% chance to draw, 0.1% draw odds will give the applicant a 5% chance to draw.

This leveraging of small draw odds is then further compounded when applying in multiple states. To take a simplified look at it (not taking into account all the variable of different draw systems) if a guy applies in 9 states for 50 years, he will have his name "in the hat" for sheep 450 times over the course of his lifetime. If you apply for tags with a 0.1% chance to draw that is a 45% chance to draw over the course of your lifetime (one tag every two lifetimes). If you apply for tags with 1% chance to draw that is a 450% chance to draw (4 to 5 tags in a lifetime). That is what even small increases in low draw odds does when someone sticks with it.

As far as the question of where to apply in Montana, I would LOVE nothing more than a tag in the breaks. Personally, I rotate in applying in other units that consistently produce 180 class rams, as it would be a dream come true to harvest a book ram.

I have max points in Montana and even with that my draw odds in Unit 680 are only about 0.1% (considering the non-resident tag limit and my point level). I could apply for a lifetime (50 years) at those odds and have only a 5% chance to draw in my lifetime, or a 1 in 20 chance to draw. However, the unit I will apply in this year I estimate will have a 0.6% chance to draw, and if I applied a lifetime at those odds (50 x 0.6%), I would have a 30% chance to draw in my lifetime, or nearly a 1 in 3 chance to hunt trophy rams in Montana. Not bad.

To encourage guys who are applying without max points, my son drew in Wyoming in the random draw, and my other son drew his Arizona desert tag (Mexicana) with only 4 points at the ripe old age of 15. Your odds of drawing a sheep tag are a ten-thousand times better then winning the lottery :-)

[Bitterroot Bulls]

BB you are absolutely right about statistics and independent events, and that every draw stands on its own.

The point I am bringing up however is how to leverage even slight improvements in draw odds over the course of a lifetime of applying (50 years of applications). This works even in applying in a single state. Draw odds of 1% are indeed twice as good as draw odds of 2%, and draw odds of 1% are ten times better then draw odds of 0.1%. In a given year this might not equate to much, but over the course of a lifetime (say 50 applications/per state) 2% draw odds will give the applicant a 100% chance to draw, 0.1% draw odds will give the applicant a 5% chance to draw.

This leveraging of small draw odds is then further compounded when applying in multiple states. To take a simplified look at it (not taking into account all the variable of different draw systems) if a guy applies in 9 states for 50 years, he will have his name "in the hat" for sheep 450 times over the course of his lifetime. If you apply for tags with a 0.1% chance to draw that is a 45% chance to draw over the course of your lifetime (one tag every two lifetimes). If you apply for tags with 1% chance to draw that is a 450% chance to draw (4 to 5 tags in a lifetime). That is what even small increases in low draw odds does when someone sticks with it.

UH, your examples are still incorrect, statistically. Under your second premise, if all 50 states had a 2% draw odds hunt, and you put in for all of them, you would be statistically certain to draw one. That is not the case. In fact there is a 98% chance, collectively, that you wouldn't draw any of them.

My point about the Law of Independent Trials disputes your first premise. Over 50 years of a simple 2% draw unit, you would not be guaranteed to draw the tag. In fact on year 50 you would still have a 2% chance to draw. Of course, this would be for a straight draw like ID, and bonus points would come into effect if they were available as they are in MT.

How many times your name goes into the hat over your lifetime has no bearing on whether you will draw the tag. Only the number of times your hat goes in that particular pool that particular year has any statistical consequence.

[Umpqua Hunter]

UH, your examples are still incorrect, statistically. Under your second premise, if all 50 states had a 2% draw odds hunt, and you put in for all of them, you would be statistically certain to draw one. That is not the case. In fact there is a 98% chance, collectively, that you wouldn't draw any of them.

My point about the Law of Independent Trials disputes your first premise. Over 50 years of a simple 2% draw unit, you would not be guaranteed to draw the tag. In fact on year 50 you would still have a 2% chance to draw. Of course, this would be for a straight draw like ID, and bonus points would come into effect if they were available as they are in MT.

How many times your name goes into the hat over your lifetime has no bearing on whether you will draw the tag. Only the number of times your hat goes in that particular pool that particular year has any statistical consequence.

BB, I respectfully disagree.

My understanding of the Law of Independent Trials simply says the odds of one event occurring has no effect on the odds that another event will occur. Practically, what that means is when I apply in Montana, the draw odds in Montana have no bearing on the draw odds in say Colorado, since they operate independently.

That however does not mean that increased numbers of applications and improved draw odds have no bearing on your overall probability to draw a sheep tag. You are correct that you cannot "guarantee" a tag, but you can most certainly improve your odds. That would be like saying my chance to roll a "6" with a dice in one roll is no different then my chance to roll a "6" in 1,000 rolls of the dice. Each roll does stands on its own (1 in 6 odds), but the increased frequency drastically improves the probability I will roll a "6". Of course it is not "guaranteed" I will roll a "6" since each event is independent.

I recall there is concept in statistics which has do with calculating the probability of ANY one event occurring in a series independent events. So in our example, that would be drawing ANY sheep tag (one event occurring), when applying in several states for many years (many independent events). I recall the probability of any one event occurring can be approximated by simply adding the probability of each independent event. For example:

Probability of A or B or C = Probability of A + Probability of B + Probability of C

I know I am getting rusty, but I do have a pretty heavy math background from engineering. If you have a formula that more closely calculates probability it would really be helpful to me. I use statistical formulas for my own planning for hunt drawings. I have a spread sheet that estimates my cumulative draw odds each year, by state, species, and overall odds. It’s a tool that helps me plan my applications so that I don’t draw too few tags, or too many in a given year.