I largely agree with what you say.It will take many years to clear out the people with a large number of tags, and the states will likely change the game as the years go by.
One correction on the large jump in people from 13 to 14 points. Back in the old days (14 years ago +), you had to submit the entire tag fee at the time of application in order to get a preference point. The point fee was minimal, but sending a check for roughly $1K+ kept many people from applying. The system was changed to just allow you to apply for the point only, and send in your $7 dollar point fee. A huge increase in applicants occurred the following year. A few years after that, when the state had thousands of people invested in the point system, they then raised the price to $100 per point (for sheep). Many did drop out, but the majority thought they had enough points they had to stay in the game and continue paying the high point fee. In effect they were being held hostage by their accumulated points and had to keep paying to stay in the upper points group.
It won't take more than 5-10 years to draw all the applicants with more than 13 points (currently) assuming they all don't apply for the same unit. WY does give out quite a few NR sheep tags each year. But some stubborn people will hold out for what they perceive as the very best unit, and will likely still be waiting for a tag many more years. Getting through the large number of point holders in the 13 point group will take a very long time, however. And now WY is talking about raising the tag fees considerably, and once again taking advantage of those who are hostage to their high points. The tag looks like it will go up to at least $2500, and eventually they will raise the point fee higher also.