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  1. #21
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    Whether or not you have a preference point system like Colorado or a straight up random draw like New Mexico, the odds of drawing the uber-premium tag is always going to be low. Everyone talks about the elk tags in northwest Colorado as never being available for them to draw in their lifetime whereas in New Mexico you could draw them multiple times. Yes, it's possible. And so is winning the Powerball.

    Looking at the draw odds for 16D rifle elk in New Mexico and the 2C rifle deer tag in New Mexico, whether or not they have a point system or not, your draw odds are incredibly low and it is highly unlikekly that you would ever draw those tags. For 16D elk rifle, there were 684 non-resident first choice apps and 3 got drawn for draw odds of 1 in 228. So statistically you would have to apply for 228 years to draw that tag. For the 2C mule deer rifle tag, 763 non-residents apps were submitted on their first choice and ONE drew a tag. So even if NM decided to go to a preference point system next year, there would probably be a couple thousand people that bought points and the vast majority of people with max points for the next 50 years would still never draw that 2C tag.

    I think the hype over the top units is vastly overdone anyways. I don't know if it would be all that enjoyable of a hunt knowing that you waited 20 years for a tag. To me, the pressure of waiting for a tag for 20 years and then feeling like I had to shoot a monster just doesn't seem enjoyable to me. To any of the guys on here who've had one of those tags, I'd be curious to know what you felt like going into and out of the hunt.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by NDHunter View Post
    Whether or not you have a preference point system like Colorado or a straight up random draw like New Mexico, the odds of drawing the uber-premium tag is always going to be low. Everyone talks about the elk tags in northwest Colorado as never being available for them to draw in their lifetime whereas in New Mexico you could draw them multiple times. Yes, it's possible. And so is winning the Powerball.

    Looking at the draw odds for 16D rifle elk in New Mexico and the 2C rifle deer tag in New Mexico, whether or not they have a point system or not, your draw odds are incredibly low and it is highly unlikekly that you would ever draw those tags. For 16D elk rifle, there were 684 non-resident first choice apps and 3 got drawn for draw odds of 1 in 228. So statistically you would have to apply for 228 years to draw that tag. For the 2C mule deer rifle tag, 763 non-residents apps were submitted on their first choice and ONE drew a tag. So even if NM decided to go to a preference point system next year, there would probably be a couple thousand people that bought points and the vast majority of people with max points for the next 50 years would still never draw that 2C tag.

    I think the hype over the top units is vastly overdone anyways. I don't know if it would be all that enjoyable of a hunt knowing that you waited 20 years for a tag. To me, the pressure of waiting for a tag for 20 years and then feeling like I had to shoot a monster just doesn't seem enjoyable to me. To any of the guys on here who've had one of those tags, I'd be curious to know what you felt like going into and out of the hunt.
    I can't disagree with what you are saying, but to me, I think it is fundamentally wrong to completely shut someone out of an opportunity to draw a certain unit, just because they weren't lucky enough to be alive when that point system was implicated.
    There will never be enough great tags to go around, but I think every one should get a fair shot at them.

    Regarding actually waiting 20 years to draw a tag? I won't do it.. I like to hunt far too much to ever wait 20 years for a tag.
    My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.

  3. #23
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    I'm not really well-versed on draw systems, but I think preference-based draws stink. I think the fairest draw is where you get one ticket in the hat for every year you've applied. That way, everybody has some chance, and those who have been in the game the longest have the best chance. I am strongly against any system that excludes people, particularly the youth and beginning hunters.
    Live to hunt, hunt to live.

  4. #24
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    I'm still sorting out the different state systems but it seems to me squared bonus points and a portion of the tags set aside for straight up random draw is the most fair way to go.

    I have no idea why people put in for units that take 10 or more points to draw. Is it really worth not hunting that state for that many years and is the hunting that much better than other good units?

    I think in CO units 2 and 201, the success rate on archery deer is something like 37% after putting in for 10-12 years! No thanks. It puts way too much pressure on the hunt to enjoy it and you could have been hunting other units nearly as good in the meantime.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonArrow View Post
    I'm not really well-versed on draw systems, but I think preference-based draws stink. I think the fairest draw is where you get one ticket in the hat for every year you've applied. That way, everybody has some chance, and those who have been in the game the longest have the best chance. I am strongly against any system that excludes people, particularly the youth and beginning hunters.
    ***What you have stated shows that you aren't well-versed in draws because when you say PP systems stink and then say what you would like is exactly what and how a PP system works and it tends to exclude exactly those that you mentioned!

  6. #26
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    Topgun, actually a PP system like Colorado does exclude everyone except those with max points so people with less than max do not even have a chance at the tag.
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  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by In God We Trust View Post
    Topgun, actually a PP system like Colorado does exclude everyone except those with max points so people with less than max do not even have a chance at the tag.
    That is correct and what is wrong with just about any PP system where a person doesn't get in and have max PPs. If units don't have a turnaround of less than 6-8 years IMHO they're not worth buying into. Wyoming is already a good example in that the system for NRs has only been in existence for 7 years and many units are taking max PPs every year already to even have a chance at drawing them and anyone with one less may never hit the jackpot. Give me a straight up random draw with possibly a waiting period of several years for those who draw top tags and then it's fair to everyone every year.

  8. #28
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    I have no experience with pp but in Nv we have bonus points. Yeah random might be the fairest, but I know I will have almost a guaranteed chance at drawing a great tag with bonus points. With random, you face drawing less tags throughout your life then bonus points IMO.


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  9. #29
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    [QUOTE=velvetfvr;56273]I have no experience with pp but in Nv we have bonus points. Yeah random might be the fairest, but I know I will have almost a guaranteed chance at drawing a great tag with bonus points. With random, you face drawing less tags throughout your life then bonus points IMO.


    ***I've heard a lot of people say that they think NV has the best system going. My Wyoming buddy won't argue with that as he drew a primo archery elk tag for unit 6 this year with very few points and it really surprised him.

  10. #30
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    [QUOTE=Topgun 30-06;56275]
    Quote Originally Posted by velvetfvr View Post
    I have no experience with pp but in Nv we have bonus points. Yeah random might be the fairest, but I know I will have almost a guaranteed chance at drawing a great tag with bonus points. With random, you face drawing less tags throughout your life then bonus points IMO.


    ***I've heard a lot of people say that they think NV has the best system going. My Wyoming buddy won't argue with that as he drew a primo archery elk tag for unit 6 this year with very few points and it really surprised him.
    Nevada has the best IMO. It's totally random but you get bonus points that are squared. So the BP's get squared and that's how man times your name (#) is put in. It's really great.


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