Where we were in the big horns the snow was so deep chains didn't do any good and the warden closed the trail into the mountains. Good luck John
Roscoe -What did you decide and how did your hunt turn out?
I am in a similar position this year, trying to decide which unit in the Bighorns to hunt with 7 points.
45,38, and 41 are all high on my list of possibilities. Any thoughts from the WY experts?
Originally Posted by cmbbulldog
If you want to be sure to hunt in 2015 and only plan on applying in the Regular PP Draw, you'll have to put in for 38 or 41 or get real lucky in the random draw because 7PPs was less than a 43% chance to draw in the regular draw last year for unit 45.
Last edited by Topgun 30-06; 12-27-2014 at 10:02 PM.
Yea, I know that. If I decide on 45 type 1, I don't have a problem applying in the special draw. Or I could do Type 9, and looking at the odds feel pretty comfortable I could draw the type 9 in the Regular draw. But I appreciate the thoughts.
With as many points as you have I would scratch 41 off the list.
I don't know how you can make that statement when the stats for 2014 for unit 45 were as follows:
Originally Posted by cmbbulldog
Type 1 Regular Draw-7PPs was only a 42.86% chance
Type 1 Special Draw -6PPs was only a 62.5% chance
Type 9 Regular Draw- <7PPs was 100% but 6PPs was 0 chance
Type 9 Special Draw -6PPs was only an 80% chance
Thanks Mike. That's the info I was looking at.
I would have had a 62% chance for the Type 1 tag last year with my points. 10 of the 16 people drew with 6 points. Assuming all 6 that didn't draw apply again this year, 12 more people would have jump into the game this year at 7 or more points for it not to be 100% draw odds again at the 7 point level. I guess it could happen, but I feel pretty good about getting that tag with 7 points this year. That said, I don't follow the points game in WY quite as close as you do, so I may defer to you on that one.... but from where I look, it looks pretty good.
Same deal with the type 9 tag in the regular draw. I basically just assumed (maybe that's my first mistake) that since everyone with less than 7 points drew last year, even if all the people that applied with 6 this year did so again next year, the odds would be at least pretty decent of drawing the tag.
Between the 2 scenarios, I have more confidence in the Type 1 Special draw, but know these things can vary from year to year.
Originally Posted by Topgun 30-06
I know its easier to draw.... But I was somewhat thinking of combining my points with a friend that has less so we can both go hunting. Plus, I don't know if I want to wait again for a unit that takes a bunch of points. Kind of just want to start hunting a unit I can draw every 3 to 4 years. But maybe I should do one hunt in a more premium unit since I built the points.... thanks for the feedback.
Originally Posted by Elkoholic307
It doesn't take much to screw up a plan when you're talking that few applicants that may continue to apply along with others that may not have and finally decide to put in for it. The whole fallacy of a PP system is that if you are looking at drawing top units and don't get in right away to have max PPs many times it's impossible to even catch up unless there are lots of tags available to help turn over the applicants. I'd seriously look at your other idea of hunting unit 41 in 2015 by partnering with your buddy if he has a few PPs so you wouldn't burn them all on your own hunt and could do it with a friend. The latter IMHO is much more fun, especially if you bow hunt during the September rut when the bulls are bugling.
Just got on this thread and I'm also going to try to draw the type 9 unit 38 tag! Bow hunting is my passion and have hunted Idaho a few years and am ready to hit the mountains in wyoming. Was wondering if anybody would be willing to share a little info on a few good places to start? Not looking for the biggest bull on the mountain just getting in elk and shooting a decent bull would be great. I would share any info that I come away with from the trip. I'm from Missouri so I wouldn't be able to get out and scout ahead of time.
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