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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    Fink nailed it!

    I use "science" not luck when I'm in it to win it. One of the best courses I took in college was statistics, where you learn the math behind the odds. I do buy certain raffle tags where the cost compared to the odds makes sense.

    On the other hand, as some of you mentioned, if I see it more as a "donation" where it benefits wildlife, I'll throw my name in the hat even if it doesn't make sense. One of those for me is for the Montana sheep raffle tag.
    Thanks UH!

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoHiCntry View Post
    Thanks UH!
    You bet. As long as we are on the subject, here is another example.

    I am applying for two elk hunts (WY and AZ) this year that both have about 20% draw odds. I have to apply for both tags before I will know the draw results from the other state. I really do NOT want to draw both the same year, but I do have a fall back plan if that were to happen. I would hunt Arizona with a bow early and hunt Wyoming with a rifle late and forego the archery season in Wyoming.

    If I only apply for one state I will only have 20% (0.20) chance of going elk hunting. I could go down that path for 5 years before I have a tag. If I apply for both, I have a 40% (0.40) chance I will have a tag.

    My risk of drawing two tags is calculated by multiplying the odds of both hunts:

    0.20 x 0.20 = 0.04 = 4%

    So I just have to decide if the risk of a 4% chance of having two tags is worth having far better odds I will be elk hunting this fall.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    You bet. As long as we are on the subject, here is another example.

    I am applying for two elk hunts (WY and AZ) this year that both have about 20% draw odds. I have to apply for both tags before I will know the draw results from the other state. I really do NOT want to draw both the same year, but I do have a fall back plan if that were to happen. I would hunt Arizona with a bow early and hunt Wyoming with a rifle late and forego the archery season in Wyoming.

    If I only apply for one state I will only have 20% (0.20) chance of going elk hunting. I could go down that path for 5 years before I have a tag. If I apply for both, I have a 40% (0.40) chance I will have a tag.

    My risk of drawing two tags is calculated by multiplying the odds of both hunts:

    0.20 x 0.20 = 0.04 = 4%

    So I just have to decide if the risk of a 4% chance of having two tags is worth having far better odds I will be elk hunting this fall.
    ***Is that the new math you're using? With your thinking if you applied for five different states, each of which had a 20% chance of drawing, you would be sure to draw a tag and I can guarantee you that it doesn't work that way! The more places you apply for the better your chance that you'll draw a tag, but not with the math % that you are stating. In your 20% a year chance statement that is aslo wrong, because unless you have a 100% chance you may never draw that when it's anything less.
    Last edited by Topgun 30-06; 12-24-2013 at 08:06 PM.

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  6. #24
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    How many times can you put your name in the hat?

  7. #25
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    You can put your name in the hat as many times as you can afford. There is no limit.

  8. #26
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    Has anyone else bought their tickets yet besides me???

  9. #27
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    I have purchased my tickets, the one thing I don't understand is why everyone is on here telling the world about it!!! Less is more people!!!!

  10. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edub View Post
    I have purchased my tickets, the one thing I don't understand is why everyone is on here telling the world about it!!! Less is more people!!!!
    We're a tight group around here. What's a little secret amongst friends?

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  12. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edub View Post
    I have purchased my tickets, the one thing I don't understand is why everyone is on here telling the world about it!!! Less is more people!!!!
    How exactly do you buy your tickets? I was on the G&F website, and only found a description of the tags. No info on how to buy them.
    Do you buy them while applying for regular tags on the website? Confusing for this old fart.

  13. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by shootbrownelk View Post
    How exactly do you buy your tickets? I was on the G&F website, and only found a description of the tags. No info on how to buy them.
    Do you buy them while applying for regular tags on the website? Confusing for this old fart.
    Only because I think old guys are cool, am i helping you !

    Go to the website and click on "apply for licenses" just like you do when you fill out applications for any other big game species. Input your personal info and then at the bottom there is a link for Super Raffle Tags. From there it is pretty self explanatory, just make sure you input how many of each tags you want, then click add to cart then do the next specie.

    The money should help the state, so I guess it shouldn't be such a huge secret. However with this being their first year, I would imagine odds will never be better once everyone starts catching on. Maybe i should just stop talking now....

    PM me if you still need help...

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