Last edited by WapitiBob; 02-22-2014 at 11:40 AM.
I've used a similar example before, and I'll do it again here.
Let's first assume things go on as they are and nothing changed. Today, applying for sheep very roughly averages $150 for each 0.5% chance to draw, and that is a generous scenario. It is probably more $150 for every 0.3 % chance to draw. That means you will need to invest in around 200 applications to draw. You will have had $30,000 invested to statistically have a chance to draw. Add to that $2,000 for a tag, which brings you to $32,000. After investing years and thousands of dollars in applying and realizing they will likely never draw again, many guys don't want to wast the opportunity and then invest another $8,000 or so for a guide. Now you have $40,000 invested.
I've been doing the multi-state sheep apps for 30 years and have drawn 3 sheep tags and my immediate family has drawn 3 more sheep tags. I've also applied my kids for years. In recent years I have dropped all of their Wyoming sheep and moose points. The only out-of-state place my kids are still applying for sheep is Arizona, and that is because the are going for an elk tag, and it's only another $15 a year to apply for sheep. They also apply in our home state because it is 8 bucks. Two of my family's three tags came on those cheap apps.
That brings up another point. If your primary reason to apply in a state is for a species you will draw…say like elk, and there is low cost to throw your name in the hat for sheep…go for it. But don't plan on it.
The alternative to buying points….save, earn interest on your money and go Dall sheep hunting.
To begin apply for sheep today in states with points is pretty similar to buying lottery tickets as a means of financial planning. The proven method to gain wealth is to incrementally save and strategically invest.
Applying for sheep today is no where near the same situation it was 15 years ago, or even 10 years ago. Everyone and their dog is jumping into the point game. When I started, applying for limited entry hunts was definitely the way to go for great hunts.
I believe limited entry hunt applications have similar dynamics to the stock market. Jumping in now is like jumping in when the market is near the peak. I strongly suspect we are nearing a peak and waiting for the crash, when draw systems are changed and points are devalued. I personally am very leery and developing an aggressive plan to burn points. I would not jump in thinking things are going to be the same 10-15 years from now.
Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 02-22-2014 at 12:10 PM.
UH, I think that advice is about as solid as it comes. Ultimately, I decided it's just not worth it to try and catch up on 15+ years worth of points.. I'll continue to play the game in states were it only costs me an additional $10-$15 to add it on and hope for a random tag, but I won't try and chase down WY. Maybe some day, if I have to hunt sheep, I'll head North.
My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.
To our Wyoming members or anyone with inside info: Do you see the percentage of tags for moose and sheep being cut a certainty? I don't think it's fair that non residents have a better chance to draw, but we put up way more dollars for our chances at random and preference points. What will game and fish ultimately do?
You do not have to choose between hunting Canada moose and Shiras. Do both. Do not limit your choices. You cannot shoot a Shiras moose in Canada. Hunting a Shiras will be a retirement treat to yourself. You will be there before you're ready to be there.
Last edited by WY ME; 02-27-2014 at 12:58 PM.
Yeah I think it will go through as well. It's just not right that non-residents have better draw odds for sheep and moose. On the other hand, a lot of residents put in for their wife, children, mothers, cousins, dogs, cats etc that don't really care if they ever hunt anyway. I don't want to price anyone out that truly wants to hunt these species, but a price increase on tags and preference points for residents would eliminate a lot of these applicants and give the ones who truly want a sheep and/or moose a chance to go. I don't blame them either for wanting change for the trophy species.
The deer/elk/antelope is another story altogether. They can hunt Region G every year if they want and apply for limited entry anywhere they want with some chance of getting a tag. Why they would want to change it is beyond me. I would love to have a chance at limited entry and a guaranteed region (deer) or general (elk) every year. But I don't have a dog in that fight.
I think with the almost certainty of tag cuts I will be dropping my points (2) for sheep/moose. It's just not worth the money for a chance at a random tag with the cost of the points.