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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Schaffer View Post
    I don't have the data to support this, but one thing that is very likely to happen is to see many of the top point holders reach the age where they cannot hunt, or pass away. We have a window (if the market continues to improve) where there will be a lot of retired baby boomers who will have expendable income, points, and the time to hunt across the west. Many of those may give up on the points game and head north as has been suggested. But just by shear numbers within the different generations, I have to imagine that many, if not most of the top point holders are nearing, if not at retirement age. So at least for me, I am in the point game (even though I did start when I was in my early 30's) because I think many of the points that are out there may go away as a result of aging and death and there are a lot fewer Gen Xer's that may be able to yet slide in still draw.

    I could be completely off, but it would be a pretty interesting demographic study if you could get those data along with the points data for each state (hint, hint Eastman's for future MRS or mag articles).
    And then you have a lot of max point pool guys, like me, who are around 50 years old, and have another 20 years to apply, and the point levels will have reached around 40 or 45 points before they bow out. I am reasonably certain many states will have modified their point systems before then.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Schaffer View Post
    I don't have the data to support this, but one thing that is very likely to happen is to see many of the top point holders reach the age where they cannot hunt, or pass away. We have a window (if the market continues to improve) where there will be a lot of retired baby boomers who will have expendable income, points, and the time to hunt across the west. Many of those may give up on the points game and head north as has been suggested. But just by shear numbers within the different generations, I have to imagine that many, if not most of the top point holders are nearing, if not at retirement age. So at least for me, I am in the point game (even though I did start when I was in my early 30's) because I think many of the points that are out there may go away as a result of aging and death and there are a lot fewer Gen Xer's that may be able to yet slide in still draw.

    I could be completely off, but it would be a pretty interesting demographic study if you could get those data along with the points data for each state (hint, hint Eastman's for future MRS or mag articles).
    This is worth the time if you're chasing your tail in the Sheep draw. Also, keep in mind WY will be cutting the NR Sheep and Moose tags down to 10%. Most likely next year.

    http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforu...l#.UwjfxxyIrDc
    Last edited by WapitiBob; 02-22-2014 at 10:40 AM.

  3. #23
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    I've used a similar example before, and I'll do it again here.

    Let's first assume things go on as they are and nothing changed. Today, applying for sheep very roughly averages $150 for each 0.5% chance to draw, and that is a generous scenario. It is probably more $150 for every 0.3 % chance to draw. That means you will need to invest in around 200 applications to draw. You will have had $30,000 invested to statistically have a chance to draw. Add to that $2,000 for a tag, which brings you to $32,000. After investing years and thousands of dollars in applying and realizing they will likely never draw again, many guys don't want to wast the opportunity and then invest another $8,000 or so for a guide. Now you have $40,000 invested.

    I've been doing the multi-state sheep apps for 30 years and have drawn 3 sheep tags and my immediate family has drawn 3 more sheep tags. I've also applied my kids for years. In recent years I have dropped all of their Wyoming sheep and moose points. The only out-of-state place my kids are still applying for sheep is Arizona, and that is because the are going for an elk tag, and it's only another $15 a year to apply for sheep. They also apply in our home state because it is 8 bucks. Two of my family's three tags came on those cheap apps.

    That brings up another point. If your primary reason to apply in a state is for a species you will draw…say like elk, and there is low cost to throw your name in the hat for sheep…go for it. But don't plan on it.

    The alternative to buying points….save, earn interest on your money and go Dall sheep hunting.

    To begin apply for sheep today in states with points is pretty similar to buying lottery tickets as a means of financial planning. The proven method to gain wealth is to incrementally save and strategically invest.

    Applying for sheep today is no where near the same situation it was 15 years ago, or even 10 years ago. Everyone and their dog is jumping into the point game. When I started, applying for limited entry hunts was definitely the way to go for great hunts.

    I believe limited entry hunt applications have similar dynamics to the stock market. Jumping in now is like jumping in when the market is near the peak. I strongly suspect we are nearing a peak and waiting for the crash, when draw systems are changed and points are devalued. I personally am very leery and developing an aggressive plan to burn points. I would not jump in thinking things are going to be the same 10-15 years from now.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 02-22-2014 at 11:10 AM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

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  5. #24
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    UH, I think that advice is about as solid as it comes. Ultimately, I decided it's just not worth it to try and catch up on 15+ years worth of points.. I'll continue to play the game in states were it only costs me an additional $10-$15 to add it on and hope for a random tag, but I won't try and chase down WY. Maybe some day, if I have to hunt sheep, I'll head North.
    My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.

  6. #25
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    To our Wyoming members or anyone with inside info: Do you see the percentage of tags for moose and sheep being cut a certainty? I don't think it's fair that non residents have a better chance to draw, but we put up way more dollars for our chances at random and preference points. What will game and fish ultimately do?

  7. #26
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    You do not have to choose between hunting Canada moose and Shiras. Do both. Do not limit your choices. You cannot shoot a Shiras moose in Canada. Hunting a Shiras will be a retirement treat to yourself. You will be there before you're ready to be there.
    Last edited by WY ME; 02-27-2014 at 11:58 AM.

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    To our Wyoming members or anyone with inside info: Do you see the percentage of tags for moose and sheep being cut a certainty? I don't think it's fair that non residents have a better chance to draw, but we put up way more dollars for our chances at random and preference points. What will game and fish ultimately do?
    I grew up in Wyoming and still have many hunting buddies there. There is definitely an animosity towards out of state draw odds vs in state draw odds. For instance, there is a limited quota deer hunt that I can draw every other year easily. My friends have about a 15% chance to draw this tag. Another example- I can draw a cow moose tag with 1 or 2 points. They haven't drawn in ten years of putting in. The reason non-resident odds are better is of course the cost. You won't find many residents willing to offer up $1400+ for a cow moose. I know the cut is something that any resident, not involved in outfitting, is pushing for. I can't blame them...

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    To our Wyoming members or anyone with inside info: Do you see the percentage of tags for moose and sheep being cut a certainty? I don't think it's fair that non residents have a better chance to draw, but we put up way more dollars for our chances at random and preference points. What will game and fish ultimately do?
    There is no "inside" info. The change goes thru the Legislature but it's not going away. A new Bill will be introduced next year to limit NR to 10% for Sheep and Moose. They are essentially pulling Antelope, Deer, and Elk from this years Bill.

  10. #29
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    Yeah I think it will go through as well. It's just not right that non-residents have better draw odds for sheep and moose. On the other hand, a lot of residents put in for their wife, children, mothers, cousins, dogs, cats etc that don't really care if they ever hunt anyway. I don't want to price anyone out that truly wants to hunt these species, but a price increase on tags and preference points for residents would eliminate a lot of these applicants and give the ones who truly want a sheep and/or moose a chance to go. I don't blame them either for wanting change for the trophy species.

    The deer/elk/antelope is another story altogether. They can hunt Region G every year if they want and apply for limited entry anywhere they want with some chance of getting a tag. Why they would want to change it is beyond me. I would love to have a chance at limited entry and a guaranteed region (deer) or general (elk) every year. But I don't have a dog in that fight.

    I think with the almost certainty of tag cuts I will be dropping my points (2) for sheep/moose. It's just not worth the money for a chance at a random tag with the cost of the points.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Yeah I think it will go through as well. It's just not right that non-residents have better draw odds for sheep and moose. On the other hand, a lot of residents put in for their wife, children, mothers, cousins, dogs, cats etc that don't really care if they ever hunt anyway. I don't want to price anyone out that truly wants to hunt these species, but a price increase on tags and preference points for residents would eliminate a lot of these applicants and give the ones who truly want a sheep and/or moose a chance to go. I don't blame them either for wanting change for the trophy species.

    The deer/elk/antelope is another story altogether. They can hunt Region G every year if they want and apply for limited entry anywhere they want with some chance of getting a tag. Why they would want to change it is beyond me. I would love to have a chance at limited entry and a guaranteed region (deer) or general (elk) every year. But I don't have a dog in that fight.

    I think with the almost certainty of tag cuts I will be dropping my points (2) for sheep/moose. It's just not worth the money for a chance at a random tag with the cost of the points.
    As a non-resident we can get an antelope, deer and elk tag every year. There are numerous areas that are 100% draw for antelope. I know of at least one region where it is at or close to 100% draw for deer, and if you do a special elk you can get a general every year. As a non-resident you can apply for a blue chip area for all species and a 2nd choice for the guaranteed tags I mention every year just like a resident. Your dog has plenty of fight, you just have to ante up the cash...

 

 

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