I was able to go online and alter my application. I now have unit 45 as my first choice with a special tag. All I can do is hope for the best and reapply next year and the year after and so on...
Thanks for all the input. I definitely would not have drawn as it was previously.
Good luck! Let us know how it turns out.
If everything stays as last year, they will pull last years remaining 5 point guys from the 2014 6 point pool, leaving only 5 tags for this years 5 point pool. If any 7-8 point guys apply they will reduce the available tags that would drop down to the 5 point pool.
The odds of drawing 45 with 5 in 2014 are slim but certainly worth the effort if that's where you want to hunt.
This was the first year that Eastman's listed Unit 45 as a "blue" unit, including a short write-up on the unit. Historically when that happens to a unit draw odds are crushed that year. You can likely expect a 20-50% increase in the number of applicants from 2013. Even without this listing, it will likely take 5.5 to 6 points to draw 45-1 on points this year. Draw odds for the random tags will likely be around 2-3% with the added applicants who read Eastman's.
Here is what it has taken in Unit 45 (special license) to draw on points. Even without the recent "blue" listing by Eastman's the point creep will likely mean 5 points will not be enough in 2014:
2010: 4.1% with 3 points
2011: 66.7% with 4 points
2012: 66.7% with 5 points
2013: 28.6% with 5 points
2014: Estimated 5.5 to 6 points to draw in the preference draw
Unit 7 has not been getting a lot of press as of late. If you are willing to hunt private, it would be a good hunt. Draw odds for the random tag should be about 4-5%.
Just wanted you to go into it with your eyes open.
Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 01-20-2014 at 12:42 PM.
Grand Slam #1005 + 2
Dall (1996 YT), Fannin (1997 YT), Bighorn (1998 CO Unit S-26), Stone (BC 1995), Desert (2001 NV Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 WY Unit 5)
Can someone let me know how the points work with multiple people? I have 6 points and my two friends have 6 and 5. We have a combined total of 5.66. If the projections for an area is 0% with 5 points and 100% with 6, do we stand a chance? Could we draw with a special tag in units 22, 24, 111, 118??
You would draw after applicants with 6 points and before applicants with 5 points so yes you would have a better chance drawing with 5.66 points then applicants with 5 points. It all depends on if there are tags left after everyone with more points then you has drawn.