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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Topgun 30-06 View Post
    ***How do you figure he would have a chance in 45 this year when <6 PPs was 100% and it went down to only a 28.57% chance with 5PPs last year. This year the max is 8PPs, so with him only having 5 I don't see any way he'll draw if things stay the way they have been.
    45 was 29% with 5 points and 6 was 100% and 1 less then max points so it could not creep as bad as others like 7 that took max points to be 100% so there is some chance of drawing and maybe a better chance then only in the random draw and out of the 2 units 45 is easier to draw by 1 point.

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    Tony S (01-20-2014)

  3. #22
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    I was able to go online and alter my application. I now have unit 45 as my first choice with a special tag. All I can do is hope for the best and reapply next year and the year after and so on...
    Thanks for all the input. I definitely would not have drawn as it was previously.

  4. #23
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    Good luck! Let us know how it turns out.

  5. #24
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    If everything stays as last year, they will pull last years remaining 5 point guys from the 2014 6 point pool, leaving only 5 tags for this years 5 point pool. If any 7-8 point guys apply they will reduce the available tags that would drop down to the 5 point pool.
    The odds of drawing 45 with 5 in 2014 are slim but certainly worth the effort if that's where you want to hunt.

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    Tony S (01-20-2014)

  7. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tony S View Post
    I was able to go online and alter my application. I now have unit 45 as my first choice with a special tag. All I can do is hope for the best and reapply next year and the year after and so on...
    Thanks for all the input. I definitely would not have drawn as it was previously.
    Tony…FYI

    This was the first year that Eastman's listed Unit 45 as a "blue" unit, including a short write-up on the unit. Historically when that happens to a unit draw odds are crushed that year. You can likely expect a 20-50% increase in the number of applicants from 2013. Even without this listing, it will likely take 5.5 to 6 points to draw 45-1 on points this year. Draw odds for the random tags will likely be around 2-3% with the added applicants who read Eastman's.

    Here is what it has taken in Unit 45 (special license) to draw on points. Even without the recent "blue" listing by Eastman's the point creep will likely mean 5 points will not be enough in 2014:

    2010: 4.1% with 3 points
    2011: 66.7% with 4 points
    2012: 66.7% with 5 points
    2013: 28.6% with 5 points
    2014: Estimated 5.5 to 6 points to draw in the preference draw


    Unit 7 has not been getting a lot of press as of late. If you are willing to hunt private, it would be a good hunt. Draw odds for the random tag should be about 4-5%.

    Just wanted you to go into it with your eyes open.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 01-20-2014 at 12:42 PM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

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    Tony S (01-20-2014)

  9. #26
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    Can someone let me know how the points work with multiple people? I have 6 points and my two friends have 6 and 5. We have a combined total of 5.66. If the projections for an area is 0% with 5 points and 100% with 6, do we stand a chance? Could we draw with a special tag in units 22, 24, 111, 118??

  10. #27
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    You would draw after applicants with 6 points and before applicants with 5 points so yes you would have a better chance drawing with 5.66 points then applicants with 5 points. It all depends on if there are tags left after everyone with more points then you has drawn.

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    cgmoen (01-27-2014)

 

 

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