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  1. #21
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    There were no tags leftover from reg or sp PP draw or the reg random draw. There were 376 tags in the sp random draw and 138 first choice apps leaving 238 tags for 377 2nd choice applicants which comes out to 63% odds 2nd choice in the sp draw. How else would you figure it?

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musket Man View Post
    There were no tags leftover from reg or sp PP draw or the reg random draw. There were 376 tags in the sp random draw and 138 first choice apps leaving 238 tags for 377 2nd choice applicants which comes out to 63% odds 2nd choice in the sp draw. How else would you figure it?
    You are looking at it right.

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  4. #23
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    You're looking at the report "right", you're just not understanding what you're looking at. And, to be fair, I wouldn't expect you to know any different unless somebody told you differently. The random report simply shows the remaining "std allocation" of NR tags, at the point of the random portion of the draw.

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  6. #24
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    Here is the way I see it for the non-resident general elk tag, in the higher "special" draw last year (2013):

    PREFERENCE POINT DRAW:

    1) 1130 tags (75% of the total tags) were issued in the preference point draw.

    2) In the "0" point pool there were 893 tags issued to 1031 first choice applicants.

    3) There were 138 first choice applicants with "0" points that were not drawn in the "Preference Point Draw", that then entered the "Random Draw".

    4) All of the Preference Point tags were drawn by first choice applicants. All applicants drawn in the preference point draw lost their points and did not earn a preference point.

    RANDOM DRAW:

    1) 376 tags (25% of the total tags) were issued in the Random Draw

    2) First Choice in the Random Draw: All of the 138 first choice applicants not drawn in the preference point draw drew in the random draw. None of them earned a preference point, and they would have lost their points except they had "0" to start with.

    3) Second Choice in the Random Draw: There were 238 tags remaining for the second choice applicants. There were 377 second choice applicants in the draw for these remaining 238 tags. The draw success was 63% (238/377). Everyone who drew as a second choice retained their points and earned a point.

    4) Third Choice in the Random Draw: 20 applicants, no tags were issued.

    You are right on Musket Man.

    I thought I would dazzle y'all with some more of my "new math".




    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 01-27-2014 at 08:59 PM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

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  8. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by WapitiBob View Post
    You're looking at the report "right", you're just not understanding what you're looking at. And, to be fair, I wouldn't expect you to know any different unless somebody told you differently. The random report simply shows the remaining "std allocation" of NR tags, at the point of the random portion of the draw.
    Can you please explain what I missing here?

  9. #26
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    The suspense is killing me WB! Please explain it to them since there are a bunch that aren't aware of the total tags Wyoming allows to be issued to NRs every year after the main draws are done. That was a hint guys!!!

  10. #27
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    MM, you're missing the fact that the random report doesn't show all the nr tags being allocated. So using it come to a conclusion about 2nd choice tags as illustrated by UH gives you incorrect information and you end up thinking a 2nd choice tag was less than 100%.

    I thought you were asleep for the night...
    And I get hate mail when I explain it on a forum
    Last edited by WapitiBob; 01-27-2014 at 09:11 PM.

  11. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by WapitiBob View Post
    MM, you're missing the fact that the random report doesn't show all the nr tags being allocated. So using it come to a conclusion about 2nd choice tags as illustrated by UH gives you incorrect information and you end up thinking a 2nd choice tag was less than 100%.

    I thought you were asleep for the night...
    And I get hate mail when I explain it on a forum
    The report does indicate a 63% draw.

    Huntin Fool reported last month "If you want to continue to build points but still elk hunt this year in Wyoming, then apply in the “special license” draw for your dream tag and put in for the general tag as your second choice. In 2013 hunters had a 63% chance of drawing the general license in the special draw as their second choice."

    So if I am hearing you correctly, there are more tags available than are shown in the draw report. Since Wyoming does not publish their tag numbers and season dates until usually around May, long after the non-resident elk draw, where does one find a report on these additional tags.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 01-27-2014 at 09:18 PM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  12. #29
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    Here is WapitiBob's post off of another forum. "Special Price is still 100%. The random draw report only shows the "random draw" stats. There is a suplimental draw that takes place after the normal draws and it's used to allocate the remaining NR tags that are required to meet the 7,250 NR tag quota. They go back thru the GEN apps and allocate the tags there. That draw report isn't published on the web. There were over 700 NR tags converted and allocated in that draw. All 2nd choice apps and some 3rd choice apps were drawn in that supplimental draw."

    So are these allocated in both the regular and the preference draw in the same ratio as the tags are originally allocated? If so 40% of those 700 or so tags would go into the preference draw, meaning another 280 or so, so all applicants, including all third choice applicants would have drawn. Huh…learn something new every day.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 01-27-2014 at 09:36 PM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  13. #30
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    Thanks for all the input guys.

 

 

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