Check out this link arwaterfowler.
I response to another thread discussing moose point creep, I figured it would be a good idea to do some number crunching. I looked at the amount of applicants with points from the WDGF website and the number of tags available from the MRS and figured (VERY Roughly), approximate amount of years to draw by PP total. See spreadsheet below...
Its probably confusing (and wrong) but it basically shows that an applicant with 10 points for Moose and Sheep will have to wait between 34.9 to 44.6 years to draw a Moose tag and 42.7 to 50.8 years for Sheep. An applicant with zero points would have to wait at least 127.8 years for Moose and 147.5 years for Sheep! The calculation is pretty basic, I obviously didnt round any years, assumed no change in yearly tag totals, highest point holders would draw first, and nobody would drop out of the PP pool.
If this is right, I'm really hoping for some miracle breakthroughs in medicine in order to draw. Feedback and comments would be welcomed. Let me know if my analysis is wrong, I hope so.
HornedToad appears to have done a fairly complicated analysis. The primary difference between his and mine, I figured only the top pointholders would draw every year. I.E. The units requiring lesser points would be drawn by the highest point holders. My number of available tags every year may be off, but our expected years to draw differ a lot. The way I read his numbers, he expects to burn through 705 applicants in 4 years. That would mean WY issuing 176 tags a year...
Complicated math or not... The reality is most of us would be better off paying for a guided hunt up north. I don't want to wait until I'm way over the hill to go shoot a bull moose!
This is the very reason I have said that even with 9 points I am on the fence of dropping out. The smart thing would probably be to do it. All my kids and my wife who had lesser points dropped out a few years ago.
Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 02-27-2014 at 02:30 PM.
On a good note...you actually get quite a bit of tagholders that drop out of the system, even in the higher point pools. See the link, above from Alabama its a good one, guy takes into account everything...does it every year.
Last edited by 30Hart; 02-27-2014 at 02:23 PM.