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  1. #1
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    NR Wyoming Moose and Sheep Draw/Creep Analysis

    I response to another thread discussing moose point creep, I figured it would be a good idea to do some number crunching. I looked at the amount of applicants with points from the WDGF website and the number of tags available from the MRS and figured (VERY Roughly), approximate amount of years to draw by PP total. See spreadsheet below...

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    Its probably confusing (and wrong) but it basically shows that an applicant with 10 points for Moose and Sheep will have to wait between 34.9 to 44.6 years to draw a Moose tag and 42.7 to 50.8 years for Sheep. An applicant with zero points would have to wait at least 127.8 years for Moose and 147.5 years for Sheep! The calculation is pretty basic, I obviously didnt round any years, assumed no change in yearly tag totals, highest point holders would draw first, and nobody would drop out of the PP pool.

    If this is right, I'm really hoping for some miracle breakthroughs in medicine in order to draw. Feedback and comments would be welcomed. Let me know if my analysis is wrong, I hope so.
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  2. #2
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    Check out this link arwaterfowler.

    http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforu...l#.UwjfxxyIrDc

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Thanks for the reply Alabama.

    HornedToad appears to have done a fairly complicated analysis. The primary difference between his and mine, I figured only the top pointholders would draw every year. I.E. The units requiring lesser points would be drawn by the highest point holders. My number of available tags every year may be off, but our expected years to draw differ a lot. The way I read his numbers, he expects to burn through 705 applicants in 4 years. That would mean WY issuing 176 tags a year...

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    Complicated math or not... The reality is most of us would be better off paying for a guided hunt up north. I don't want to wait until I'm way over the hill to go shoot a bull moose!

  5. #5
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    This is the very reason I have said that even with 9 points I am on the fence of dropping out. The smart thing would probably be to do it. All my kids and my wife who had lesser points dropped out a few years ago.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    This is the very reason I have said that even with 9 points I am on the fence of dropping out. The smart thing would probably be to do it. All my kids and my wife who had lesser points dropped out a few years ago.
    Use them to draw a cow moose tag somewhere cool to hunt? I absolutely love moose meat and the experience is still awesome... Better to do this than drop out completely IMO. I have some ground experience in the snowy range if your interested in info. Guaranteed draw last year for a cow tag with just a point or two. One person drew with zero I believe. You can hunt other species at the same time as well. I am doing a combo moose/elk in two or three years up there.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hilltop View Post
    Use them to draw a cow moose tag somewhere cool to hunt? I absolutely love moose meat and the experience is still awesome... Better to do this than drop out completely IMO. I have some ground experience in the snowy range if your interested in info. Guaranteed draw last year for a cow tag with just a point or two. One person drew with zero I believe. You can hunt other species at the same time as well. I am doing a combo moose/elk in two or three years up there.
    That is a super recommendation, and moose meat is the best. In about 10 years I am gonna have all my point burned, start hunting fun antlerless hunts I can draw ever other year or so and start taking my grandkids hon some adventures
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 02-27-2014 at 02:30 PM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  8. #8
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    On a good note...you actually get quite a bit of tagholders that drop out of the system, even in the higher point pools. See the link, above from Alabama its a good one, guy takes into account everything...does it every year.
    Last edited by 30Hart; 02-27-2014 at 02:23 PM.

 

 

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