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  1. #11
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    My AZ tag was tag #2. I have no idea which draw I got it in. I'm just glad I don't work in the AZ IT dept, what a mess of a system. I guess the problem is, a state risks giving out too much information to guys like us, who then tell everyone what the "real" odds are, which causes a more harm than good scenario as people realize how bad their odds really are. If guys get too discouraged then they quite applying.

    Maybe they will give us some better reports to work with in the future so we can get more accurate draw odd information, if you want to ruin your day with that kind of thing anyway. Glad I don't have to write the AZ MRS.

    G-
    N. Guy Eastman
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    Eastmans' Hunting Journals

  2. #12
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    Im actually more confused after all that! Ill just put in and hope for the best! I appreciate everyone taking time to help explain.

  3. #13
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    Are the odds posted in the MRS overall resident and non resident combined (total tags vs total applicants, with no regard to points) drawing odds?

    I will use the elk 3B ML hunt for an example since it has the best draw odds of any elk hunt in the MRS. 200 tags, and 31% drawing odds. realistically as a NR with no points if I were to apply for this hunt what chance would I have of drawing or how many points would I need to have a reasonable chance at drawing?

  4. #14
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    Guy, you were either, the first alternate and were given tag #2 when the original applicant was disqualified, OR, you were in the Bonus Pass with max points for that hunt and simply drew the tag.
    The dept knows the new report will let their customers know how bad things are, if they didn't already, which is why the changes are coming.

    Kid, you had zero chance to draw that tag. You were nowhere close to being in the max pool for 27 and there have not been any tags available in the 1-2 pass (random draw) for the last 4 years that I have been getting the stats.

    Edit
    Musket, I had the wrong hunt. I'll take another look when I get a minute.
    Last edited by WapitiBob; 02-27-2014 at 03:55 PM.

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  6. #15
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    This is why I like Idaho and nm. Primo unit odds horrible but predictable with the system in place

  7. #16
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    Umpqua, so let's say in theory that a unit has 100 tags available. 20 of those tags will get issued in the bonus pass. Let's say 10 non-residents have max points or close to it and draw 10 of those tags. That meets the 10% non-resident cap and so no tags will be available after that for the 1-2 pass. Is that correct?

  8. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by NDHunter View Post
    Umpqua, so let's say in theory that a unit has 100 tags available. 20 of those tags will get issued in the bonus pass. Let's say 10 non-residents have max points or close to it and draw 10 of those tags. That meets the 10% non-resident cap and so no tags will be available after that for the 1-2 pass. Is that correct?
    Yep. And the only way I see that you can be sure is if you look at the bonus pass and see that someone in the lower point pool drew a tag over someone else with more points. In that case the person with more points was a non-resident and the 10% cap was then in effect. This will only get more prevalent in the future as more and more non-residents reach the top point levels.

  9. #18
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    WapitiBob, Umpqua, Guy,
    That is great information, I appreciate you taking the time to explain all this! I would take me years to dig out the info to gain the knowledge that is given here! THANKS AGAIN!

  10. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Yep. And the only way I see that you can be sure is if you look at the bonus pass and see that someone in the lower point pool drew a tag over someone else with more points. In that case the person with more points was a non-resident and the 10% cap was then in effect. This will only get more prevalent in the future as more and more non-residents reach the top point levels.
    Not always true because the Bonus Pass draw report shows all applicants that applied, and the tags after they were issued. The report does not remove the applicants that drew their 1st choice in another hunt, had their CC refused, or were otherwise bounced from the draw.
    Last edited by WapitiBob; 03-01-2014 at 10:45 AM.

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  12. #20
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    So Im still looking at 0% chance?

 

 

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