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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiddwinner View Post
    So Im still looking at 0% chance?
    Yea I'd say so. If not, they're probably about 1 in 1,000 at best.

    And I'm not seeing the 30% draw odds that you mentioned. 27 is much lower than that.

    If you want to hunt any of the mid-tier AZ units, you are looking at a solid 5 year draw. Upper tier 10-15. Glory units- once if your life if you're lucky.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiddwinner View Post
    So Im still looking at 0% chance?

    You will not draw 27 until you are in the max pool(s).

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musket Man View Post
    Are the odds posted in the MRS overall resident and non resident combined (total tags vs total applicants, with no regard to points) drawing odds?

    I will use the elk 3B ML hunt for an example since it has the best draw odds of any elk hunt in the MRS. 200 tags, and 31% drawing odds. realistically as a NR with no points if I were to apply for this hunt what chance would I have of drawing or how many points would I need to have a reasonable chance at drawing?
    Hunt 3104, 3B muzzy, 200 total tags; 40 tags allotted in the Bonus Pass, 20 tags total for NR.

    (with zero points you will NOT be in the Bonus draw, 1-2 Pass only)

    Bonus pass draw:
    39 residents drew from 508 1st/2nd choice apps
    1 non resident drew from 23 1st/2nd choice apps

    That leaves for the 1-2 pass:
    369 residents, and 22 non residents vying for 160 tags, 19 of which can go to a NR.

    160/391 = 41% overall odds, without regard to residency OR bonus point advantage.

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  5. #24
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    WapitiBob thanks for the good info can you look in your crystal ball and tell me what you think this year i have three points and when't for unit 9 antlerless first season non res
    Trying like hell to live the dream,Nomad

  6. #25
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    Antlerless and "any" sex hunts don't have a NR cap. Your in the pile with the residents and the odds will be those shown in the draw reports.

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