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  1. #1
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    Bonus point drawing odds.

    Hopefully it makes some sense in the post below. This 1 didnt come out at all how I was hoping. lol


    I been trying to figure my actual odds of drawing in a BP system and this is what I have come up with. There were 8 tags. I divided the total number of entries in the draw by the applicants total entries for that point class in the draw by and divided that by the number of tags. On the right is what actually happened in the draw so as you can see my theory doesnt always work. What does anyone else think?

    Actual draw results
    points applicants total entries in draw total entries per applicant draw odds successful unsuccessful
    11 4 488 122 1.6-1 1 3
    10 3 303 101 2.0-1 1 2
    9 2 164 82 2.4-1 1 3
    7 3 150 50 4.0-1 1 2
    6 4 148 37 5.4-1 0 4
    5 3 78 26 7.7-1 1 2
    4 6 102 17 11.8-1 2 4
    3 8 80 10 20-1 1 7
    2 8 40 5 40-1 0 8
    1 12 24 2 100-1 0 12
    0 25 25 1 200-1 0 25
    total (79) (1602)
    Last edited by Musket Man; 03-05-2014 at 05:28 PM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
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    I been trying to figure my actual odds of drawing in a BP system and this is what I have come up with. There were 8 tags. I divided the total number of entries in the draw by the applicants total entries for that point class in the draw by and divided that by the number of tags. On the right is what actually happened in the draw so as you can see my theory doesnt always work. What does anyone else think?

    -----------------------------------------------------------------Actual draw results.
    points--applicants--total entries--total entries/app--draw odds----successful unsuccessful.
    11-----4-----------488----------122--------------1.6-1---------1----------3.
    10-----3-----------303----------101--------------2.0-1---------1----------2.
    9------2-----------164----------82---------------2.4-1---------1----------3.
    7------3-----------150----------50---------------4.0-1---------1----------2.
    6------4-----------148----------37---------------5.4-1---------0----------4.
    5------3-----------78-----------26---------------7.7-1---------1----------2.
    4------6-----------102----------17--------------11.8-1---------2----------4.
    3------8-----------80-----------10---------------20-1----------1----------7.
    2------8-----------40-----------5----------------40-1----------0----------8.
    1------12----------24-----------2----------------100-1---------0---------12.
    0------25----------25-----------1----------------200-1---------0---------.25
    total--(79)------(1602).

 

 

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