Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 38
  1. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    North Umpqua River, Oregon
    Posts
    2,335
    Thanks
    408
    Thanked 509 Times in 317 Posts
    Congratulations
    51
    Congratulated 57 Times in 8 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Granby guy View Post
    Those weighted points are worthless it is a RANDOM draw. I think they look at the huge group of people with max weighted points and think that they have no chance of drawing when in fact everyone basically has the same chance. I think they give out random points to make the people who have applied for a long time feel better.
    Weighted points actually do give a specific individual a statistical advantage due to the way the draw number is assigned. The reason you see a lot of tags going to those with lesser points is that is where the vast majority of the applicants are positioned, so you will tend to see a lot of tags issued in the lower point pools. As an example, in the spreadsheet in this thread, there were 14 times the number of applicants with 0 weighted points (661 applicants) than there were with the max 12 weighted points (47 applicants). That bias in numbers of applicants makes it appear points don't matter. Another issue with top point applicants is they usually chase the hardest to draw units, thus lowering their odds.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 04-01-2014 at 11:04 AM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  2. #12
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Grand Lake, Colorado
    Posts
    131
    Thanks
    13
    Thanked 24 Times in 20 Posts
    Congratulations
    0
    Congratulated 14 Times in 3 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    Weighted points actually do give a specific individual a statistical advantage due to the way the draw number is assigned. The reason you see a lot of tags going to those with lesser points is that is where the vast majority of the applicants are positioned, so you will tend to see a lot of tags issued in the lower point pools. As an example, in the spreadsheet in this thread, there were 14 times the number of applicants with 0 weighted points (661 applicants) than there were with the max 12 weighted points (47 applicants). That bias in numbers of applicants makes it appear points don't matter. Another issue with top point applicants is they usually chase the hardest to draw units, thus lowering their odds.
    I know it was more just venting frustration. There are 6 of us with max points that can't draw so to us the points are worthless. ( I understand that they do have some value to them)

  3. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    North Umpqua River, Oregon
    Posts
    2,335
    Thanks
    408
    Thanked 509 Times in 317 Posts
    Congratulations
    51
    Congratulated 57 Times in 8 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Granby guy View Post
    I know it was more just venting frustration. There are 6 of us with max points that can't draw so to us the points are worthless. ( I understand that they do have some value to them)
    I know what you're feeling!

    You have most certainly thought of it but one thing I have done often is to lessen my expectations and draw a mid tier unit with good top end potential. I turn 50 this year and am seriously taking into account that I have 20 good hunting years left, at most. if I am "all in" chasing a tag, I tend to look at the years I have ahead of me to draw and adjust my expectations to do the best job I can to insure success in the draw.

    For example there's one tag I am chasing, the vast majority of top point applicants are chasing the stars, if I do I'll I have about a 1-3% chance to draw in my lifetime. By lowering my expectations just a bit I should have about a 20% chance to draw.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  4. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Grand Lake, Colorado
    Posts
    131
    Thanks
    13
    Thanked 24 Times in 20 Posts
    Congratulations
    0
    Congratulated 14 Times in 3 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    I know what you're feeling!

    You have most certainly thought of it but one thing I have done often is to lessen my expectations and draw a mid tier unit with good top end potential. I turn 50 this year and am seriously taking into account that I have 20 good hunting years left, at most. if I am "all in" chasing a tag, I tend to look at the years I have ahead of me to draw and adjust my expectations to do the best job I can to insure success in the draw.

    For example there's one tag I am chasing, the vast majority of top point applicants are chasing the stars, if I do I'll I have about a 1-3% chance to draw in my lifetime. By lowering my expectations just a bit I should have about a 20% chance to draw.
    HAha, I agree but there isn't really a mid tier unit for moose here. I could consider another unit with a little better draw odds but damnit I want to hunt them in my backyard.

  5. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    North Umpqua River, Oregon
    Posts
    2,335
    Thanks
    408
    Thanked 509 Times in 317 Posts
    Congratulations
    51
    Congratulated 57 Times in 8 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Granby guy View Post
    HAha, I agree but there isn't really a mid tier unit for moose here. I could consider another unit with a little better draw odds but damnit I want to hunt them in my backyard.
    I know it doesn't seem like much but 3% odds is more than twice as good as 1.5% odds…just saying.

    There are units with odds as high as 8% and as low as 1.5% with max points.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  6. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Grand Lake, Colorado
    Posts
    131
    Thanks
    13
    Thanked 24 Times in 20 Posts
    Congratulations
    0
    Congratulated 14 Times in 3 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    I know it doesn't seem like much but 3% odds is more than twice as good as 1.5% odds…just saying.

    There are units with odds as high as 8% and as low as 1.5% with max points.
    I know but I think I'm a creature of habit. Like a lot of people who started applying 20 years ago I figured I could draw a tag by the time I was 40 so that means I would have to draw this year. I started collecting points for elk years ago and got frustrated and burned my points about 10 years ago but if I would have stuck with it I would now be able to draw a tag in the NW corner. I never expected to see the moose applicants explode the way that it has.

  7. #17
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    163
    Thanks
    3
    Thanked 23 Times in 22 Posts
    Congratulations
    0
    Congratulated 0 Times in 0 Posts
    GranbyGuy I have max points, got my voodo dolls out with all the candles and beads. Please rub my head, punch me in the face or some other good luck remedy!!!! I have been out drawn with a guy who had 1 weighted. Shot a nice bull with his recurve. Maybe just go up to Ak to my buddies. I put in for 7,8,191 as I always do.

  8. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    North Umpqua River, Oregon
    Posts
    2,335
    Thanks
    408
    Thanked 509 Times in 317 Posts
    Congratulations
    51
    Congratulated 57 Times in 8 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Granby guy View Post
    I know but I think I'm a creature of habit. Like a lot of people who started applying 20 years ago I figured I could draw a tag by the time I was 40 so that means I would have to draw this year. I started collecting points for elk years ago and got frustrated and burned my points about 10 years ago but if I would have stuck with it I would now be able to draw a tag in the NW corner. I never expected to see the moose applicants explode the way that it has.
    The other side of the coin is elk is a preference system, and you can catch the top. Moose isn't….so play the odds to win. Just a suggestion.

    The flip side is you wouldn't want to look back in 20 years and realize you likely would have gone moose hunting if you'd played to win.

    At 40 you will probably draw the tag you want, just so they don't mess with the draw system.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  9. #19
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    119
    Thanks
    9
    Thanked 28 Times in 19 Posts
    Congratulations
    0
    Congratulated 1 Time in 1 Post
    Stop the press. I went back to look at the difference between regular and weighted point holders. I've got a problem, the data shows the exact same amount of point holders for both regular and weighted every year. See below. Example 2013 - 1500 and 1500? I double checked the data and it is correct according to Colorado's website (http://cpw.state.co.us/thingstodo/Pages/Statistics.aspx). I will try calling the Department of Parks and Wildlife for help. There is no way that the numbers can be the same every year. I'll let you guy know what if find.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Capture Moose.JPG 
Views:	23 
Size:	94.3 KB 
ID:	9088

    I'll post the Bighorn data when I figure out what the deal is.
    "Elk don't know how many feet a horse has!"

  10. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Grand Junction, Colorado, United States
    Posts
    94
    Thanks
    16
    Thanked 6 Times in 5 Posts
    Congratulations
    1
    Congratulated 29 Times in 2 Posts
    Im 36 and I only have a few moose points in CO. Hopefully will be able to draw one before I die...lol

 

 

Similar Threads

  1. Colorado Mountain Goat Preference Point Growth
    By arwaterfowler in forum Colorado
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-12-2014, 07:47 PM
  2. NR Wyoming Moose and Sheep Draw/Creep Analysis
    By arwaterfowler in forum Sheep, Moose and Goat
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 02-27-2014, 02:13 PM
  3. "Point Creep"
    By Colorado Cowboy in forum Colorado
    Replies: 39
    Last Post: 02-20-2013, 04:52 PM
  4. Wyoming Point Creep
    By Edelweiss in forum Wyoming
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 03-31-2012, 06:30 PM
  5. Colorado Draw Point Creep
    By Liv2HntBigBullz in forum Colorado
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-05-2011, 07:56 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •