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  1. #11
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    Im not going to believe NV actually put me in their draw until I actually draw a tag there! lol
    Keystone 1, Over!

    " I am lost in the dust of the chase that my life brings"

  2. #12
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    To OP

    The reason as previously touched on that you don't see all that you think you should see is the bonus point data shows numbers for the applicants who listed said hunt as their first choice as well as people who actually drew that tag regardless of what choice it was.

    So 1000 people could list it as their first choice but if there are 10 tags it could show 1010 applicants since maybe no one who actually drew listed it as a first choice

  3. #13
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    It sounds like this is NV's way of not letting us see how bad the draw odds really are.
    Keystone 1, Over!

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  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musket Man View Post
    It sounds like this is NV's way of not letting us see how bad the draw odds really are.
    Not many states do let you know how bad the odds are.

    Since only the first choice draw odds are shown, it is obvious that most people are going to pick one of the top hunts (like a "late" deer hunt) as their first choice, then fan out from there. That means a hunt that appears to have very good draw odds may intact have horrible draw odds, because few people would burn a first choice on it, but would use a later choice on it. In theory it would be possible for a hunt to show 10 applicants (first choice) and actually have 1000 applicants in total.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  5. #15
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    So what you are saying is the 1-10 odds I figured I have based on my points and everyone elses points that didnt draw last year based on whats shoen in the BP data is really around 1-50. It seems to me if they just gave you 1 choice and drew all 1st choices first like other states the draw odds would be alot better. I think the more I learn about the NV draw the less I know. lol
    Keystone 1, Over!

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  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musket Man View Post
    So what you are saying is the 1-10 odds I figured I have based on my points and everyone elses points that didnt draw last year based on whats shoen in the BP data is really around 1-50. It seems to me if they just gave you 1 choice and drew all 1st choices first like other states the draw odds would be alot better. I think the more I learn about the NV draw the less I know. lol
    There is no way to know what the draw odds are. I just use the 5 times divider as an estimate. Remember your odds are worse than you thought on your first choice, but you do have the leverage of 5 choices.

    And I tend to think very few applicants really understand the draw systems they are in and what it takes to win. Big magazines have thrived on presenting simple odds and creating "hope" when reality is much more bleak.

    If a person is not savvy in their application strategy they are just gambling.
    Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 04-02-2014 at 09:34 AM.
    Grand Slam #1005 + 2: Dall (1986 Yukon), Fannin/Stone (1987 Yukon), Bighorn (1988 Colorado Unit S-26), Stone (1995 British Columbia), Desert (2001 Nevada Unit 161), Bighorn (2009 Wyoming Unit 5)

  7. #17
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    Its hard to have a strategy in NV because anything can happen with their system and there is nothing predictable about it at all. All you can do is apply and see what happens. I have decided to apply for some less popular units in northern NV since they are closer and odds should be a little better.
    Keystone 1, Over!

    " I am lost in the dust of the chase that my life brings"

  8. #18
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    This whole deal that only the unsuccessful 1st choice applicants show up in the bonus point data is really frustrating. Though, even if the rest were listed, I still don't know if I could come up with a reliable way to calculate the true odds. It comes down to the fact that Nevada draws the hunter and not the unit first. Not everyone will use all five choices either, which complicates things a bit. I feel like soliciting the services of a PhD in statistics is in order. Maybe listing what choice the hunt was for successful draws would add some info? though probably not. Anyways, good luck drawing everyone
    Can't spell scum without U&M... Go 'Cats!

  9. #19
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    The short answer MM is if you draw then yes you where in the draw.
    I don't Break the rules, I Modify them.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ikeepitcold View Post
    The short answer MM is if you draw then yes you where in the draw.
    Im going to keep applying until I find out
    Keystone 1, Over!

    " I am lost in the dust of the chase that my life brings"

 

 

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