Strip & Kaibab Tags

[Zim]

Zim: Yeppers, I did get that off of the member's section. When you start getting up near the 40% draw odds, statistically things change fast:

Year 1: 4 of 10 people draw = 40% draw odds (6 left)
Year 2: 4 of the remaining 6 people draw = 66% draw daw odds (2 left)
Year 3: The last two draw = 100% draw odds

I suspect there will be more top point holders putting in for the Kaibab tags 2nd choice as the years go by, as they see their odds for 13 drop each year due to more NR's getting the hunter ed point than do draw 13 tags. I wish I had it to do over again as my odds of drawing that IL permit are low, and those results come out prior to the AZ app deadline. I could have saved that AZ tag for when I draw no IL permit. Oh well, at least there will be fewer hunters in the Kaibab this fall, and apparently they are having a very wet spring.

[Umpqua Hunter]

I suspect there will be more top point holders putting in for the Kaibab tags 2nd choice as the years go by, as they see their odds for 13 drop each year due to more NR's getting the hunter ed point than do draw 13 tags. I wish I had it to do over again as my odds of drawing that IL permit are low, and those results come out prior to the AZ app deadline. I could have saved that AZ tag for when I draw no IL permit. Oh well, at least there will be fewer hunters in the Kaibab this fall, and apparently they are having a very wet spring.

You do have a good point there, but even that has an end to it. Only those with one below max can get to max with the hunter's safety option. For me personally, I'm at max, and I am willing to stay here for another 15 years if it takes it for a 13 tag. My estimation is it will be less then 5-7 years.

[TimG]

Did you draw? I drew unit 12 A East for mulies 11/18-11/27!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TimG

[nvarcher]

Anybody know what the draw odds are like for an Archery tag in these units?

[ChadH]

Anybody here got a realistic shot at a Strip or Kaibab late hunt this year?

My buddy and I have 1 point under max and after analyzing the rediculous complex draw system there I figure we have about a 20% chance to draw Kaibab. Put 13A for first choice but we know that ain't gonna happen.

If he goes down to take the test we'll be in top draw pool for a strip unit next year.

I wish i had a chance, unfortunately I think I will be about 60-65 years old (I am 48 now) before I have a shot. I am saving up for 12A or 12B. I have an old photo of my grandfather hunting Kaibab in the late 40's after he got back from WW2 and have always wanted to hunt there. Drove through in September a few years ago, and hung out a day and scouted deer. Even early I saw quite a few bucks, no big ones though.

Looking at the map for 12B it doesn't show a distinction for East and West, but you apply for East or West correct?

What are the early hunts like in that unit? Like I said, I saw deer in there early, but assume the big boys aren't in the country at this time (or tough to find). For someone like me that just wants to hunt the area, is an early hunt worth burning the points or should I wait another 10 years?